ReconSWS, I could see a pull back this summer or a sideways mkt, I think it moves up in the fall. Why do you forsee a collapse?
-
-
Well I've been unconvinced of this massive rally since it started and wiped out all the bears back in March of last year literally over one night went from complete world collapse to complete market rally.
But the reason why I think it's going to happen now, is because all of the 'analyists' who track the market crash, there is an old guy who has like a 20 week series tracking the market crash... they all now say it's going to happen in september. Here's a different one claiming the same thing : https://youtu.be/Frdqk1FWj3A?t=348
You are also claiming the same thing.. the fall.. would be convenient wouldn't it? It's right in the name.. the FALL xD
Anyways I notice people are easy to sway - why would a 28 week guy who was calling the market top 28 weeks ago now say it will be in sept. Something flipped him, something caused him to lose faith that it will happen tomorrow...... so that makes tomorrow the perfect opportunity xD... from a psycho-analysis standpoint.
But here's a non-trader's view on it and I like it since it backs me up
https://youtu.be/XKPKHFbDNSE
It's probably better to wait for a 'confirmation' before playing a market collapse (i.e. overnight combo of circuit breakers) would be a good sign to confirm... otherwise yeah it'll just go sideways for god knows how long lmao.
-
-
I was getting excited, then I got greedy. I'm still holding GME, and it finally got to where I was positive, but not quite to my goal to make a little on top. Bastards started selling, and it is down again. I know I need to average down, but all this up and down is crazy. I just want to break even at this point.Comment
-
Back to boring old dividend collecting. The market got boring and I got tired of watching everything so now I'm just riding on blue chip stocks. Still upside down in ARKK and PLTR so it's a waiting game until they come back.
Went somewhat deep into EMAN when it was doing well and pulled back then it just continued to pull back even further. In an attempt to recover my cost basis I sold a covered call at the $2.50 strike which is expiring friday. Looks like I'll get assigned and lose a bunch. Good times. The urge to buy more and make a revenge trade is strong.Comment
-
Not that good lately, just flat line. They really took off earlier this year in january through march so I'm okay with that. Blue chips are a long term hold, not a quick way to make a few percent so I'm holding. Currently doing just fine on dividend payments. If you look around there's not much except meme stocks with any real upwards movement.
-
Made 100% on a handful of GME. Chickened out and sold AMC for hundreds in profit instead of thousands. That one hurt. Had good day trades with EMAN then the crash came… it’s on the way back up to even. Holding the bag on a couple others. Im more comfortable in crypto
Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkComment
-
Ok dudes, what is the next meme stock to go 300% in one week I need to put my money into that instead of stupid spy puts.
What we thinkin, NOK? LOL?
I actually considered AMC leaps last month... to bad I'm fuckin stupid LOL and keep thinkin the markets gonna crash.Making new mods.Comment
-
Okay well for once I made a smart call with NOK, baby popped up nicely today right after I bought my calls, easy 50% profits.
The absolute BEST strategy for me, is to do nothing, since I have 88x 10c for NOK september. These could be worth 50k if it truely is the 'one' memestock.
However, we're stupid as shit here, and we sold all of those for 50% profit and dumped every single penny into SPY 420 puts for MONDAY.
I mean the definition of insanity is repeating the same failing strategy over and over again, but c'mon it has to fucking work eventually lmao.
I set up a straw poll for the lulz : http://www.strawpoll.me/45435536
Technically though, I'm satisfied with my play even if I lose everything and Nokia does pop 350% the next day, because I kept me weeklies which are only $50.00 in value but still if we're really looking at true memestock potential with NOK, then even these 13x will make me happy.
Worst case scenario I just let it expire worthless, second worse is I sell at a loss at open most likely reclaim only 5%, good case is we hit 420 on SPY and I can escape with no loss and a bit of profits, best case is we drop a nice 5% to 405, which would make these babies worth like a bajillion dollars. We don't yolo every day but when we do.... it's usually shit. One of these days tho.Making new mods.Comment
-
I have retro-active confirmation bias (which never actually helps) but at least I'll have good weekend lul. https://youtu.be/Zl_TZ-R74Es?t=260
Basically he sayin he shorting TSLA and also recommending buying SQQQ which is a 2x SPY bearish index so SPY puts same difference. Apparently holding shares of 2x and 3x things is weird as they lock in losses and gains daily (i.e. if there is a loss day that amount is subtraced ffrom the underlying)...but as far as I can tell options do not care about this bs and OTM ones can be a cheapo gamble.
Allls I'm saying is LAST WEEK EVERY YOUTUBER WAS LIKE THE MARKET IS COLLAPSING, and this week it went all time highs, people are lulled into false security, perfect drop opportunity... but I can rationalize all I want it's literally no different tahn going all in on A,A pre-flop in a holdem poker game, bound to lose to some trash hand and get mad. Fuckin aces tho c'mon acessss do ya thing
-
People have been saying we're 'due for a downturn' since 2014 or so, and other than Corona--which bounced back like a monster ball--it ain't happened yet
WWhich isn't to say it might not happen next week, just that nobody is any good at predicting em and anyone who does got lucky
Dulce et decorum est pro comoedia moriComment
-
Honestly being a poor bear with only lvl1 strats and commisions is hard - the strategy seems to enter in the blue area, and have your expiry set to the far right of the graph. Super fuckin hard to nail down but man, when it happens It's gonna be so sick. This graph is a pathetic dip though, where is that single day 30% drop? I literally just want 2% here baby. We have after market, futures, futures, premarket, and then what'll happen most likely absolutely nothing. But ya never know, if you don't take the chance. Edit : too bad I bought dailies and liquidated the LONGS what a failure... we'll see tho come monday.Making new mods.Comment
-
SPXS 25C 7/16 x 40
VIX 47.5C 7/21 x 25
Semantically, I'm not allowed to go short since my sub-conscious is actually afraid of infinite losses and the responsibilities of borrowing, and being margin called a pussy. We're only allowed to play with the safety-scissors although we've kind of sharpened them up into a prison shank (generally useless, but it CAN get the job done after about 97 stabs).
Making new mods.Comment
-
Okay so this wasn't the rationale for my buying options on 3x bear and fear index. I just wanted to gamble my stim.. but what the FUCK is going on with these treasury yield numbers first of all (INVERTED CURVES) are very bad and maybe I'm not experienced enough to judge the degree of inversion but yesterday and today have inverted numbers (i.e. one set lower than the other). Also the 10y yields are going down like shit and everyone is always like yooo the 10y ehhh the 10y so thats the one to look at.
I look at these yield curve numbers weekly, and this month is absolutely a new paradigm. It's boring as fuck checkin in most weeks but dang something is a brewing (most likely just more fuel to go up to infinity lol fuck the bears amirite)
Making new mods.Comment
-
Okay - what do you all make of this? We just KEEP GOING UP RIGHT? No coincidences right? Everything peachy? (There has been a recent blast of youtubers claiming market crash... moreso than usual)
Jim Cramer during Covid Crash Timestamped saying credit lines are key: https://youtu.be/siaVsbLLrpg?t=119
Random stock dude commenting on wells fargo stopping bank loans : https://youtu.be/AH9ecNo3nAc?t=489
-
-
I'mma keep shit-posting until this stupid bitch of a stock market crashes 50% over one weekend... here's another one for you.
Post on /r/wsb today $90.00 -> $24,000.00 gain from buying call options on STMP or stamps.com
Why is this relevant, because it makes me fucking jealous? 100%
But, actually, this is a big ass deal. What is stamps.com, it's a literal competitor to AMAZON.COM, it literally impedes their dropshipping model and their model for print on demand as now you have individual entities in this separate network making money not via AMAZON! Long story short... Amazon is like #1 FAAAG stock and it's literally kind of a dog-shit company that mainly deals in chinese goods and YES some chinese goods are very good like I got some sick ass digital calipers but when literally everyone starts shipping from home.. amazon is done.
"The company revealed Thursday it revoked the exclusivity stipulation of its deal with USPS, ultimately spurring the complete termination of its partnership. And it championed Amazon's foray into the shipping space, as reported in an SEC filing earlier this month. ... It's a big bet on Amazon, and dented Stamps.com stock."
Randome quote from Google. I decipher it as BIG COMPETITION between the two... and with recent blabbity blah whatever SPY is gonna hit 500 tomorrow GG I'm dumb lol
If you think about it though... amazon kind of is fucked in the long run as simple 'individual' competitors pop up. Imagine just fucking JOE NOBODY opening up a store drop shipping chinese goods using stamps.com to ship and yah hows y our business 360b revenue now but next yea? I dono.
GRASPING AT STRAWS LOL. Okay this my last post 4 now hope ya'll enjoy LOLMaking new mods.Comment
-
I kinda see what you're saying here, but dropshipping is by no means a new model, and I also don't think dropshippers would really be using stamps.com since they don't actually ship their own items. Unless stamps.com has another product model that works in the dropshipping space?Originally posted by ReconSWS View Post
I do think Amazon has shot themselves in the foot by not protecting their FBA sellers. r/FullfillmentByAmazon has almost entirely been people complaining about Chinese sellers ripping off their entire product and listing, even claiming they were the original seller, and Amazon does absolutely nothing about it.
However, Amazon might also see this as an opportunity to pump AmazonBasics by allowing the Chinese sellers to push everyone off the platform, and then creating distrust of Chinese sellers so that people will opt for AmazonBasics versions of things.
This is not to discount stamps.com, the world needs more independent e-commerce retailers, and their service is massively helpful for smaller businesses.Originally posted by Terry A. DavisComment
-
This whole thread is completely mind boggling to me.
The cold hard truth: Active investing doesn't work. Period. It doesn't matter if you are Warren Buffet, JP Morgan, or some day trader slinging stocks from his basement. Statistically speaking it cannot be done. You might be lucky enough to make the right call once. Maybe twice. Hell maybe even three times in a row. Long term though? It's just not going to happen, and in my opinion it's arrogant as all hell to think that any one person or individual is smart enough to "beat the system". ESPECIALLY when there is as much money as there is going into the system to fund people to do this as a full time job.
You will consistently get better returns focusing on cost cutting fund fees, playing the tax code, and indexing then you will ever get from trying to crystal ball this shit. I am not smart enough to do that. You are not smart enough to do that. There is a $100,000,000,000 industry that exsist and it's not smart enough to do that.
If $100,000,000,000 dollars can't get the job done, I sure as hell can't either. I'm going to buy and hold and just bank on the statistics that it will outperform active management over 95% of the time.
For my personal accounts, it's 100% index funds and ETFs all the way and I have never once regretted it. I check my personal performance maybe once or twice a year. Having seen 1000s of portfolio performance numbers, I can say with a great deal of confidence that sitting on my ass doing nothing has had by far better returns then any "strategy" I've ever seen. Just set your allocation right, do it cheaply, shovel as much cash as you can into it, and then walk away.
Last edited by Myrkul; 07-05-2022, 02:50 AM.Comment
-
Agreed. For me, this is entertainment--a few extra bucks after the bills are paid and the real investments are funded.Dulce et decorum est pro comoedia moriComment
Comment