Stock Trading -or- ReconSWS's Bane

[the_matrix_guy]

EMAN's Q3 ER is also tomorrow at 9 AM ET. Keep eyes on it.The outlook is highly bullish. I posted some DD a few posts back in case you're interested in a quick summary, I don't usually play ER's but I'm glad I played EMAN during the Q2 ER, it went from 1.30 to 2.00 that day ( 1.90 intraday, 2 after hours) This is the only small-cap I'm playing with cash. We look poised for tomorrow. Accumulation has been bullish for months. Our Stochastics which has been our most accurate and telling momo indicator is coiled with a bullish %k crossover and ready to uptrend. We are at a “breakout with volume” phase which bodes real well. And its trading above the 50 DMa alongside the macros / markets. Has been following the macros to a large extent which is bullish for a small cap. Most small caps have broken & shot to hell and back pump and dump charts.

[Axel]

Palantir has been making it rain the past week. Here's hoping earnings live up to expectations tomorrow.

[desertT1]

ABR popped, so the calls I sold will likely get exercised. Not too worried. I’ll have made money and will move that cash into another stock with a better yield that hasn’t recovered as much yet.

[Fluff]

I am really happy with bdx. keeps creeping up. I like slow growth stocks. also Apple below 120 a share is a no brainer. it has a history of growth and regular splits. although I did dump my smith and wesson into astra zeneca. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as...ies-2020-10-30
interesting to me

[desertT1]

The NOV calls I sold several weeks ago are in the home stretch. I’m still safe, but they will start to decay a lot faster now.

[gabe]

Yeah, that might be a buy. I'm not super bullish on INTC for probably another year or two but their 3% dividend yield with good long term growth potential is definitely alluring. I don't think it's going to drop much lower than maybe $42-43 though unless we have a massive selloff because of new CV cases and/or a shutdown. With a P/E in the single digits it's definitely FAR undervalued right now and is looking like a fantastic buy. With their earnings power they could easily double or triple in the next 5 years if they make a breakthrough like Matrix_agent indicated.

Right now I'm leaving my main portfolio alone as it's pretty well positioned and is performing along with the S&P500 but with a 3.5% dividend yield on cost. Unfortunately I'm in the negative growth but once dividend payouts trickle in through the rest of the year I'll still show a handsome profit this year.

On the other hand I'm isolating my OCD trading tendencies to my much smaller Webull account which I started with $300 and am slowly working my way towards $1k on swing trades. SPCE is easy money between $16 and a little over $20 in about 30-60 day swings. I've also bought into DFEN around $9 which is one of SWS Recon's favorites to swing trade as well as picked up 100 shares of EMAN around the $1.30 price point. Initially bought way too high at 1.50 and have been dropping my average now that it's around 1.20 as of today. DFEN looks like a good play right now as both presidential candidates are in favor of defense spending on different levels and if Biden gets elected the bailout for the aerospace industry will likely be a bit larger than what the republicans would pass.

[eddie]

I gotta do more research of course, but i'm thinking of picking up some intel shares soon. Especially if it dips below $40.

[gabe]

That's not a bad idea. I might also look at selling a cash secured put on INTC for somewhere around the $38 or $39 strike point. I certainly wouldn't mind owning more there and worst case I could wheel strategy it and sell a covered call if it gets assigned.

[the_matrix_guy]

gabe Thank you.

Intel is losing market share on both the enterprise and consumer side. But this was already known. And it continues as per their Q3 ER. I also think that they gave ambivalent answers regarding their 7nm node progress which fueled the uncertainty and subsequent sell off. If you’re averaging down, then, I’d wait. Especially since AMD’s Q3 ER is coming up now, and it will have a detrimental effect on INTC share prices, IMO. Also, consider hedging your long cash position with puts. Or at least keep an eye on option volume. It can be a fairly accurate indicator of the trend. My puts were up big time.

[gabe]

Thanks for that insight. Yeah, I guess there is definitely downside on Intel in the short term but I'll just have to average down on it. Their earning power speaks for itself and it's only investor sentiment that is pushing the stock lower, not any fundamental issue with the company itself. Of course stocks trade on investor sentiment these days, not so much on the fundamentals.

Again, thanks for your analysis. I never learned to do the in depth chart reading or any analysis on that level so it's good to see some thought going into it. I'm a pretty lazy investor all things told and try to just buy companies with solid track records for earnings, trading at a discount for some reason, and with at least a 3% dividend yield so if all else goes poorly at least it's making me some return.

[the_matrix_guy]

Dude, gabe, I wish you would've talked to me about Intel earlier. I've been playing the Intel & AMD CPU duopoly for over a decade now. I always buy the fear and sell the greed when it comes to these two companies. Obviously, I am more bullish on AMD currently, they're gaining massive market share on both the consumer front as well as the enterprise side-of-things. That being said, I don't believe the Intel bear thesis that Intel is bankrupt-bound, for one sec. Yes, they are behind AMD by at least 1-2 years, but their single core architecture is still better. They just need one breakthrough in multi core efficiencies to get back in the game. Look, things always look extremely bleak, people forget that AMD was trading for around $5 in 2010. And people were saying that the company was going bankrupt. Even 7-8 years later, the stock was trading for around $10. Intel reigned supreme, and AMD was dogshit. It wasn't until Q2 of 2018 that AMD broke-out, (and that's when I went all in at $14.) I have been watching Intel for a year, I traded options earlier this year, but now I am watching for an entry point around 30. So yes, i am short term bearish on it but LT bullish. Funny thing, I was just talking to my buddy about Intel yesterday before it dipped.

Edit: I almost forgot, EMAN's uptrend is textbook, there's still alot of upside left. Currently, Stochastics are looking toppy, I do expect a small dip before Q3 earnings, in case you're looking for an entry point. But this company has a very bullish pipeline, lots of pending news on several fronts, and it is getting greater market recognition, you can confirm this with accumulation / distribution (Wycoff) analytics. Kopin (KOPN) is it's closest industry peer, and it already announced its Q3 ER date for Nov the 3rd, which is just a little bit over a week from now -- their IP is not nearly as good as EMAN's, and they don't have nearly as good core-competencies like the DoD backing, (as many or as lucrative) defense contracts, tier one tech contracts -- but nevertheless, they still reported 50% YoY growth last quarter. I am bullish on the whole microdisplay industry. It's one of those "a rising tide lifts all boats" growing industries.So KOPN is also worth keeping on your radar. It could also offer a glimpse into the market share growth for eMagin (EMAN).

it's also worth noting that EMAN is tied by the hip to Big Tech and the macros. It has been uptrending with Big Tech and the market indixes since the market-wide dip in April. Just last week, we went back over the 50 DMA again alongside Big Tech and the macros. It's one of the few micro caps with a textbook uptrend, following the markets, which bodes real well. So if you plan to jump in, always keep those macro charts handy cause we follow them closely: COMPQ, SPY, etc. Big Tech moves the whole market for better or for worse.And as I alluded, we're tied by the hip:

EMAN:



Nasdaq Index:



S&P 500:



And the NYSE Index:



DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. Opinions expressed are my own. Investment strategies vary and are fluid. Always do your own research and your own due diligence. Never make financial decisions based on comments on social media without researching the company yourself. And deciding what is the correct investment strategy for you. Always understand the inherent risk in trading securities.

[gabe]

I know, I have been watching hard since the 1.30 level trying to get in there but no chance. Beautiful week for them.

I've been bullish Intel and despite having a good earnings call they are getting hammered. Not too happy about things end of this week.

[the_matrix_guy]

gabe EMAN finished the week strong. Look at that beautiful chart. It's been a case study on Fib charting since April. It's also showing bullish accumulation and following Wycoff.

[desertT1]

I now have a hair over 200 shares of ABR. They were in the upper 11’s a few weeks ago and I tried to sell 2 12.50 calls, but they never filled. I did it again last week when they were about 11.90. Those filled. Going one month out, .30 per contract. My quarterly div was .30 until they raised it to .31 last quarter so it’s like getting a doc payment every month if I can get the right setup. I don’t expect it to happen every month, but still.

I’m buying MAC with cash I put in and get from selling calls. That’s a 4-bagger if it gets back to the 52-week high, but also the div was .55 and they cut it to .15 per quarter when Covid hit. If they go back up (they should, all of their properties are back open) then my buying in the 7’s will get me in the 25-30% yield range for those shares I’m getting now.

[the_matrix_guy]

Will do, And thanks. I do have too many hobbies & interests. I'm also into cars; off roading, spear fishing, firearms, etc, etc.

The chart for STOR looks pretty good. It looks like its also been uptrending with the markets since the market wide dip in April due to CV. And it just had a Golden Cross recently. 50 DMA keeps averaging up. I'd have to do some DD on it. Regarding TSLA, it's one of those stocks that I had on my watchlist since 2018 and I just kept watching go up & up. Frankly, I never thought it wouldve hit +300-400% from its 2018 levels, but either way, my portfolio was 80% AMD in 2018-2019.

And EMAN just had a presentation yesterday, again very bullish, not only are they poised to continue growing based on the existing contracts, but they are well poised to continue capitalizing market share. Emagin's OLED microdisplay was spotted in Nvidia's prototype AR/VR, this was during Nvidia's Display Week SID web conference in August:





But there are also a lot of tidbits and speculation regarding a possible Apple contract for either its upcoming AR/Vr or the Apple Glasses. The company has said that they're under NDA's so they can't disclose it until the companies release the products.But it's slowly getting the market recognition it deserves. It’s capitalizing heavily in the microdisplay & AR/VR industry.

* BULLISH MARKET-SHARE GROWTH WITH SIGNED CONTRACTS: Apart from the DoD contracts, the company has signed licensing agreements with at least two tier-1 tech companies in the AR/VR space and is currently in discussions to procure more contracts as per the CEO.

* INDUSTRY-LEADING PATENT PORTFOLIO WITH NEW PATENTS IN MICRODISPLAY: The differentiators are best-in-class in all categories: best picture quality and most power efficient by a wide margin. There are also pending news on the R&D front: The company is simply years ahead of the competition @ 7.5K nits going to 10K nits this year, 4K resolution TBA, and most power efficient technology which will be huge for the incoming wearable market as well as small form factor AR/VR solutions.

* HAD A BULLISH Q2 ER SHOWING 46% YOY GROWTH ALREADY

* BACKLOGGED REVENUES: At the end of Q2, EMAN's backlog grew to $14.5 million of which $13.2 million is expected to ship within the next twelve months. The backlog is up 24% as compared to the $11.7 million backlog at the beginning of the * UNDERVALUED: smallish float, currently undervalued as per the booked financials let alone the highly bullish core competencies.

* HUGE GOVERNMENT BACKING: $39M in recent grants, no prospects of dilution as per the CEO. The recent grants validate the importance of their technology for the DoD. And are meant to expand its manufacturing capabilities to deliver their patented dPd IP to their Defense Industry partners.

Existing defense contracts contributing to the company’s growth: These systems include: 1) Army Enhanced Night Vision Goggle, Binocular (ENVG-B) 2) Family of Weapons Sight: Sniper, 3) Laser Target Locating Module 4) Squad Binocular Night Vision Goggle 5) Common Laser Range Finder 6) Javelin Command Launch Unit 7) DELTA-I, and 8) eCOSI/eCOTI 9) Military aviation development programs such as Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) Helmet Mounted Display System , and 10) Apache Integrated Helmet and Display Sight System.

We have a $5 PT, but it’s on the conservative side, all things considered. The company is implementing an organic growth strategy. Aside from the existing deals pending disclosure and high probability of new contracts / increased market share: The CEO also stated in the Q2 ER and in one of the recent presentations that the company has significant liquidity and does not intend to dilute shareholders in the near term. The current float is smallish at 67mn. We are one major news drop / catalyst away from getting tute interest and smart money. Once that happens, everyone will be chasing. In fact, insiders are already buying calls which is a highly bullish sign. It obviously signals and confirms the highly bullish company outlook. And insider buying almost always precedes tute interest. That being said, their dPd technology is industry leading and scalable to all screen sizes not just microdisplays, so the $5 PT is conservative, in our opinion, all things considered.

I'm also on Stocktwits, UN; Turnberry.