I'm in Pfizer's COVID vaccine trial, ask me anything.

[vijil]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Like I say, I think a combination of effective treatments + vaccines for those that can be convinced = the only reasonable solution. Herd immunity is almost certainly a dead end. Current estimates say it's a good 7 years before we're back to something like "normal".

[vijil]

Yes, I think this is the best way to go. If you're using the stick, you just generate problems that will pop up later. Banning/forcing stuff tends not to work long term.

I don't think it'll be enough for herd immunity though, see: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

[Diomedes]

"joints for jabs"

Washington state. Gotta love the PNW.

Unrelated, latest numbers out of NJ:

4,432,769 fully vaccinated individuals
3,474 COVID+ cases among the fully vaccinated (99.92% effective)
84 COVID-related hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated (99.998% effective)
31 COVID-related deaths among the fully vaccinated (99.9993% effective)

Pandemic's over if you're vaccinated, y'all.

[Diomedes]

Well, "misinformation" is going to be false, kinda be definition.

[vijil]

One recent issue was the Wuhan lab theory. I don't know how things went down over there, but here it was something like this:

Initially, it was a legit theory
Then, it was considered unlikely
Then, anyone who raised it was denounced as a racist and a conspiracy nut by our media. The same media who have taken it upon themselves to run cover for our govt.
Now... oh look, it's a legit theory again !? Likely, even.

Meanwhile our govt have been caught outright lying to us on several other issues, so govt trust is generally low. Now if the theory had just been in the "that's not what we currently think" pile then ok, but it was put firmly in the "you're a racist" pile (or at least perceived to be such, which is enough), and that's pissed people off.

So the problem here in NZ (dunno about you all) is that the right/conservatives have legitimate reasons to distrust both the government and our mainstream news media. This is probably part of the general polarisation and gradual destabilisation of the western world right now. I'd say western culture has 50-100 years left, but that's just me.

I think our odds of getting to herd immunity are near-zero, and as I said, I think the only hope for those who can't be vaccinated will be advancements in treatment options.

[CrowsFeast]

The philosophical question is, what level of compromise to our Bill of Rights act would be justified? Note it's completely irrelevant how safe the vaccine is considered from a medical rights perspective. There are discussions here about making the vaccine compulsory, which would directly violate established law and set a worrying precedent.

"There's always another way"
Some places found a 'dangling carrot' approach. I think there was one 'state lottery' where everyone who got a does had a chance to win a million dollars (or some such). I heard about another program that was something along the lines of "joints for jabs" (I'm not even sure if this one was run by the government).

There's still people who are either on the fence or simply apathetic. A carrot may be all they need to fall on the side of vaccination and it may even be enough to hit herd immunity; so there's no longer a reason for the government to reach for a stick.

[vijil]

Technically, any marketing/promotion which appeals to emotion can be defined as propaganda. It doesn't have to be false or bad or misleading.

The term is used mostly just as a pejorative. Kinda like "misinformation" or "fake news" - these are basically defined as whatever the speaker doesn't agree with, even if they do have official definitions.

[lhamilton1807]

Well, I knew once politics entered the discussion it would take an ugly turn. Diomedes, thank you for consistently turning the conversation away from misinformation and toward the actual facts. The amount of misinformation out there is staggering, and the propaganda machine that is churning it out is working in overdrive. I appreciate your constantly turning the conversation back to real science and away from the distracting narrative.

So just some background- I’m a white male, religiously conservative Christian that until recently felt more aligned with the center right. The amount of vitriol, hate, lies, deception, and care for one’s “rights” over the care for others has caused me to think a lot about how my political decisions were influenced by what I thought were solidly Christian. But I think what’s “Christian” nowadays isn’t necessarily Christlike. I’d prefer to take the latter approach if they’re divergent. And oh how they’ve diverged.

Really, life isn’t about me. It’s about finding ways to uplift the least fortunate, the weakest, the downtrodden, the poor, the frail, and the vulnerable. I’ve got it good, honestly. If I can reach kids that don’t have father figures by taking them paintballing, that can be life-changing for them, and it just costs me some paint and time.

Along the same lines if I can prevent (i.e. lower, not eliminate, the risk) others from getting a disease that went from nonexistent to the third leading cause of death in the US in 2020 in 10 months’ time by wearing a mask or getting vaccinated, then I’ll do that. I have too much love for the people around me, even those I don’t know, to screw their lives over so that I can continue to flash my teeth at everyone. Wearing a mask sucks, but spewing a deadly virus when I’m not even sure I’m infected (yes, asymptomatic spread is a real thing) only hurts society’s most vulnerable. Sure, getting the vaccine is uncomfortable and made me feel cruddy for a day, but if doing so prevents my spreading of said highly infectious disease to those that would get seriously ill from it, I’ll take the shot; it has, after all, been tested widely, and the cost is FAR less than a game of paintball. I’m entirely of the opinion that Jesus would wear a mask and get the vaccine in addition to treating those who were already ill. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

You don’t have to take on my spiritual view of the pandemic or life in general - that’s totally cool. I just put that out there in case religious influences in some people’s lives were keeping you from getting vaccinated or wearing masks if you chose not to (or can’t, for medical reasons) get the shot. Regardless, this forum is all about making the paintball community a better place by sharing knowledge, know-how, and fun. Just think about what paintball would be like if we acted selfishly? Walzmas isn’t based on protecting one’s rights to their old crusty paintball guns. Neither is help with fixing weird air leaks, DIY mods, trades, sharing Craigslist or eBay finds, etc. Why not take the same approach when it comes to the pandemic and do what it takes to make life return not just to normal, but safe and, dare I say it, FUN?

[JonM]

With this much division among people over whether or not they'll voluntarily get the vaccine and the number of people who will continue to overwhelm our hospitals and die from what is now effectively a preventable disease, I'm wondering how long it will be before someone decides enough is enough and makes it mandatory. There is legal precedent for this as well dating back to 1905 when the Supreme Court mandated that everyone be immunized against smallpox. I really hope it doesn't get to that point, but I really don't see many other alternatives at this point. Personal choice doesn't factor into it when the infected pass on a deadly disease to those who *can't* be vaccinated.

[Diomedes]

So once the vaccines get full, non-emergency approval in a couple of months we’re gonna be good? Cmon, we all know that isn’t the case. People will find some other excuse.

Again, to call this technology untested just isn’t in line with reality. And that’s putting aside the cost-benefit given the known, documented, quite common long term effects of covid.

Obviously I’m not changing anyone’s mind, but I’d appreciate if people didn’t pretend that their mind could be changed, if only this *one* thing was different, be it a longer use history, non-emergency approval, etc.

Edit: The "propaganda" that's out there is on the anti-vax side. Stuff you mention, Toestr , is not propaganda; that's a public health campaign. The vaccine isn't the end (yet) because *not enough people are vaccinated*. You *should* wear a mask, that keeps yourself and others safe. Not as much as a vaccine, but it certainly helps. Moving goalposts? The pandemic changes! We learn stuff! Epidemiology is science, and that's how science works. If we didn't move the goalposts as we learn stuff, we'd still be killing people by using ventilators the wrong way for this disease.

At the end of the day, there are only a few outcomes, ultimately. Largescale, either a sufficient number of people are vaccinated that the pandemic ends, or the vaccinated people can more or less go back to normal, while the unvaccinated still face an ongoing pandemic. Individually, given how transmissible some of the new variants are (the vaccines still confer excellent protection against all the variants so far, btw), the choice comes down to three options: vaccination, infection, or indefinite pretty stringent masking/isolation/etc (or, likely, some combination). The important thing is that, individually, once you're vaccinated, you can exhale and basically not worry about it. And once you, your family, your kids are all vaccinated, you can really exhale. The only problem at that point is people who can't get vaccinated. The only way to end the pandemic for them is for everyone else to get covered. So get vaccinated, please.

[Toestr]

I think vijil hit it right on the head. The 'propaganda' campaigns are unsettling. It's creepy hearing disingenuous phrases that have been around since the start of the pandemic like "We're all in this together" repeated over and over again on TV, radio, and even over the PA in the store. It stopped being comforting a long time ago. Then you hear public health agencies making coercive statements like wear a mask, stay away etc until you get vaccinated; when they've already said that the vaccine isn't the end all be all solution. People get tired of having the goalposts moved.

Diomedes - you've made the best case I've heard so far for getting a vaccine. Of the vaccines required for public education in NJ, how many are out on an emergency approval basis? Yes the technology has been studied for 10+ years, but I take life saving medication with technology that dates back 100+ years, and given the chance I'm still not willing to use a new and improved version that hasn't undergone a full test period. I think most of the people who are reluctant to get one do so for this reason (and also a mistrust of the authorities). Shaming and belittling them will not change their mind. Coercion through alienation and limiting their access to society might, but I don't think that's somewhere we want to go.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[vijil]

I don't see why you're surprised. The right has traditionally emphasised individual freedom over collective responsibility, while the left traditionally favors collective responsibility. The overton window shifts one way or the other, but the basic spectrum is always there. Maybe it took a minute for the politicians and the big media folks to figure out that those angles were the ones to best engage their audiences with on this, but figure it out they did. I would have predicted it. I'm not sure I would have predicted the level of division it would lead to, but as a basic idea - always gonna happen.

I also actually do understand the sudden pushback against *this one* in schools. Chances are there's been unease for a long time. When something moves slowly, it's hard to define a point at which people will push back. That's part of why stuff gets introduced slowly. It can take a big event for people to suddenly have a problem with a whole load of stuff they never mentioned before.

[Diomedes]

One last note:

I think there's *every* surprise that this breaks down along partisan lines. This is an issue because *one side* <looks meaningfully> made it an issue. You'd *think* public officials would put public health and the well-being of their constituents first, but apparently you'd be wrong. But make no mistakes. The current cluster is 100% percent a conscious decision.

Especially rich because the responsible parties (Murdoch, Carlson, etc.) are all vaccinated. They know what's up, and they're lying.

[Diomedes]

In the US, and specifically where I live, New Jersey, there is a LONG list of vaccines that are mandatory if you want to go to public school, for example. Nothing is compulsory, but there's a huge public health interest in achieving the highest vaccination rates possible, and the state government has every right to say "if you want to use state services, here are the rules to keep everyone safe". Where I teach (a huge public school), a COVID vaccine is required if you're going to take an in-person class this fall, and people are losing. their. minds. Nevermind that there are *eight* vaccines (I just looked it up) that were *already required* for in person classes, living on campus, etc. But *this one* is a bridge too far? I find that hard to take at face value. Not a coincidence that there's a giant, ongoing propaganda campaign (apparently successful, based on comments in this thread) to convince people not to get this vaccine, and now people suddenly have a problem with a vaccine requirement.

[vijil]

I'm a marketing guy.

I don't have any particular issue with the safety or effectiveness of the mRNA vaccine. I like mRNA vaccines in principle - they don't involve cell cultures from 70s abortions and are therefore far less ethically problematic for a decent chunk of the population, AND more effective. Great.

I'm actively involved in promoting the vaccine to our 500 or so staff at work.

I think my issues here in NZ mostly revolve around unintended consequences, and power grabs.

For example, some of our major news media outlets have taken it upon themselves to promote the vaccine, hiring people for specifically that purpose (stated as much in the job ads). I understand it on one level, but on the other level this means that said media outlets are no longer reliable on this topic. The biggest one recently published a piece defining misinformation as anything other than the official narrative, which is... I mean, if you can't see the problem there, I can't help you. That doesn't apply to all media outlets however. We *do* have a creeping problem with media partiality here.

Besides miniature propaganda, we're seeing various very partisan laws shoved through under urgency while everyone is distracted, and a general opportunistic power grab. YMMV in different countries.

The philosophical question is, what level of compromise to our Bill of Rights act would be justified? Note it's completely irrelevant how safe the vaccine is considered from a medical rights perspective. There are discussions here about making the vaccine compulsory, which would directly violate established law and set a worrying precedent. At present, a company cannot require employees to disclose vaccine status, for example. It's under privacy. So will that go? Will they really stop there?

It's the age old question of freedom vs security, really. And it seems to be a case of zero compromise. You can't just vaccinate 50% of the population - that wont protect those who can't get it. But you can't make it compulsory without setting one hell of a scary precedent. So they try to market it heavily and get the media on board (through the aforementioned media accreditation scheme) and now you've got a budding state propaganda arm. Of course the marketing won't work (in my professional opinion) and we're unlikely to get past 70% vaccination rates, so what then? Will they double down and make it compulsory?

So where you fall will depend on where you sit on the spectrum of collective obligation vs individual freedom. There's absolutely zero surprise that this breaks down along political partisan lines.

Personally I lean whichever way is least authoritarian, so I'd hope that it remains optional, and that herd immunity doesn't become such a goal that our govt are willing to trample hard-won freedoms for this. Part of life is choosing how much risk to accept. The amount of human sacrifice in the name of freedom the govt are willing to accept in other areas is very high, so it would be strange for them to decide this was the one to curtail everything in the name of. But I wouldn't put it past them given how much they seem to enjoy the power. Power, after all, is one hell of a drug.

Best realistic case scenario in NZ: we wont achieve herd immunity, and will have to rely on (hopefully) effective treatments for those who get the bug anyway. Worst case, I can see this and future govts getting far more authoritarian in ways they've always probably wanted to anyway.